Armenia and Azerbaijan, two neighbouring states that have been in major territorial conflict since the early days of the former Soviet Union, are confirmed to currently be on the long-awaited verge of peace.
The first formal statement corroborating a possible peace treaty came from Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan during a press conference on Saturday. Pashinyan reported that his government has issued a formal request for Azerbaijan to sign a peace treaty, after having assessed the improving dialogue and the progress on crucial issues between the two states in the recent months.
During the press conference, Pashinyan stated “We have 17 articles in the latest draft of the peace treaty. Thirteen of them, including the preamble, are fully agreed on. (…) We offer the following — to take all agreed-upon articles and wordings and sign it as a peace treaty.”
The statement was given just a day after the two parties declared signing a pact on a joint border commission to define and establish their common frontier. These past developments showcased the significantly improved relations between the two states, which have been in constant conflict over the past decade over Azerbaijan’s separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh and also Armenia’s internationally acknowledged borders.
The violent and deep-seated Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is rooted in ethnic and territorial tensions between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. Despite its 95 percent Armenian population, the Soviet Union founded the Nagorno-Baragh Autonomous Administrative Division (Republic of Artsakh) within Azerbaijan in 1923. In 1988, the Division’s regional legislature announced its intent to join Armenia’s rule, igniting an armed conflict that later escalated into all-out warfare after the Soviet Union’s dissolution in 1991. By 1994, Armenia had obtained authority over Nagorno-Karabakh and its surrounding areas, which led to a ceasefire negotiated by Russia and inevitably left the region de facto independent yet still heavily dependent on Armenia due to their close economic, political, and military ties.
Despite the ceasefire, recurring hostilities between the two states continued, building up to a short yet destructive war in 2016 and then a larger one in 2020. The 2020 war also resulted in a Russia-brokered ceasefire, although this time Azerbaijan ended up reclaiming the majority of the territory it had lost in the early 1990s. Following the 2020 war, an EU monitoring mission has been deployed in Armenia to observe the tense situation on the border and ensure there would be no humanitarian concerns. Since then, the political tension has remained high, leading to further battling and Azerbaijan's blockade of the Lachin Corridor in 2022, which severely restricted Armenian access to Nagorno-Karabakh.
In 2023, Azerbaijan tightened its control over the region, resulting in a planned operation in September, which eventually led to Azerbaijan reclaiming full control of Nagorno-Karabakh. This triggered a humanitarian crisis, with many ethnic Armenians forced to flee the region. Once again, Russia-brokered negotiations began. The meetings focused on the disarmament of Armenian forces and the reintegration of Nagorno-Karabakh into Azerbaijan. Protests erupted in Armenia, with citizens accusing their government of failing to protect ethnic Armenians in the disputed territory.
While speaking to POLITICO, Azerbaijani foreign policy chief Hikmet Hajiyev confirmed that there has been significant progress in the bilateral discussions regarding the issue, adding that the agreement on the border commission “should be seen as sufficient for the withdrawal of the EU contingent.”
As it seems for now, the potential peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan marks a significant turning point in one of the longest-running territorial conflicts in the former Soviet Union. After decades of violence, ceasefires, and fragile negotiations, both countries appear to be on the brink of achieving a historic resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The progress made in recent negotiations, including the establishment of a joint border commission, demonstrates a cautious optimism, but the path to lasting peace will require sustained efforts, mutual trust, and careful navigation of deeply rooted historical grievances.
