Lebanon has recently experienced some of the worst violence in their history, as fighting intensifies between Hezbollah and Israeli forces. The recent flare-up saw Israel pummel Hezbollah positions under the military operation codenamed “Northern Arrows” with a barrage of airstrikes. This round of high-casualty fighting is drawing a renewed international attention as the dire consequences for civilians escalate in a region already primed for crises.
Overview of the Current Escalation
The latest campaign by the Israeli army started on September 22, 2024 after a stream of setbacks that Hezbollah had to face during mid-September. It included the killing of Ibrahim Aqil, commander of Hezbollah's elite Redwan Force, and attacks on major communication systems used by the group. Hezbollah then attacked northern Israeli cities such as Nazareth and Kiryat Shmona with barrages of rockets and drones. Israel countered with heavy air bombing, with claims of having struck more than 1,500 positions of the Hezbollah group in just two days. The strikes have been unusually deadly, representing one of the most devastating attacks in Lebanon since the end of its civil war in 1990. More than 569 people have so far been killed, many of them civilians, including 50 children and 94 women, while over 1,800 people were injured, Lebanon's Health Ministry said. In addition to this tragic loss of life, over 90,000 Lebanese civilians are displaced by war under very desperate living conditions.
This wave of violence is part of an overall, everlasting conflict between Hezbollah and Israel that has smoldered for decades but saw its latest significant escalation in October of 2023, when Hezbollah officially joined the full fight alongside Hamas after the latter's attacks against Israeli positions. Ever since then, Lebanon and Israel have been carrying out cross-border hostilities, mostly for the fact that there were efforts by Hezbollah to have strategic gains in southern Lebanon, while Israel was trying to stop the Hezbollah military presence around its borders. There were over 10,000 cross-border attacks from October 2023 to September 2024, of which about 80% were from Israel. Whereas there has been a long period of conflict with both sides carrying some casualties, civilians in Lebanon and northern Israel have borne the brunt of the violence. This animosity is long-standing due to the fact that Hezbollah opposes Israeli policies and supports Palestinian groups, which Israel fears will be connected with Hezbollah's military capabilities. The actions by Hezbollah have largely been framed in the context of a wider resistance against Israeli occupation and regional hegemony.
Casualties and Humanitarian Situation
Perhaps the most poignant characteristic of this conflict is the number of civilian Lebanese casualties. Most of the targets of the Hezbollah military structures that Israel bombed were located in densely populated areas, including parts of southern Beirut and other towns across south Lebanon.
The international community has also expressed grave concern on humanitarian grounds. From the United Nations to scores of NGOs spread across the globe, calls for a ceasefire have been made. All the diplomatic measures to middleman peace so far have been unsuccessfull. Hezbollah vowed that the attacks would continue unless Israel stopped its operation in Gaza. On the other hand, Israel demanded nothing but the complete destruction of Hezbollah's military capabilities.
The long-term consequences for Lebanon are even worse than the immediate effects this war could have. The country has been under a long financial crisis since 2019 that has driven the country into nationwide poverty and unemployment. In addition to these problems, the recent fighting has made sure that a lot of businesses-mostly in southern Lebanon-have to shut their doors because of the fighting. The politics of Lebanon are highly divided as Hezbollah dominates the Lebanese government. This has contributed greatly to holding the country from coming up with a single front to handle both its internal and external challenges. The longer the current conflict with Israel persists, the more it pulls Lebanon into the regional power play and slides further into instability.
A Nation on the Brink
The recent airstrikes against Lebanon and the retaliatory attacks against Israel by Hezbollah form part of a single conflict that, until recently, showed no signs of reduction. Humanitarian consequences have been devastating: hundreds of civilians killed, thousands injured, tens of thousands displaced. Along with diplomatic efforts, there is little likelihood that peace can come along, having Hezbollah and Israel holding such an entrenched position. In the case of Lebanon, it has little to lose: economic collapse, dysfunctional state of politics, and the after-effect of the 2020 Beirut port explosion may hint at something deeper being in place. Renewed violence now risks pitching the country right to the edge, with the gravest consequences for its people and for a wider Middle East.
For the rest of the world, it may be a question of watching and waiting. But for the Lebanese, reality in a conflict far from over goes on. The question is no longer simply how the violence will be brought to an end but how Lebanon is ever to rebuild in its wake.
Edited by: Derya Selin Yener, Oya Yamaç
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