A couple of days ago, news about the consequent earthquakes in the Aegean Sea became the topic of discussion on social media platforms such as X, sparking concern among Turkish and Greek citizens over potential risks. There have been 313 earthquakes reported in the last twenty-four hours, which ranged from 1.8 to 5.2 in magnitude.
Prof. Dr. Şükrü Ersoy, who is a geology specialist working at Yıldız Technical University, answered some controversial questions on the topic in an interview with Hürriyet. He emphasized the type of earthquakes, stating, “These earthquakes are not tectonic but of magmatic origin, meaning they are volcanic earthquakes. Even the Greeks call them tectonic, but I have been saying from the beginning that they are of volcanic origin. There cannot be such a tectonic earthquake. Only earthquakes of up to magnitude 5 are occurring. There has not been a larger one.”
Experts suggest that if the earthquakes are tectonic, their potential impact could differ from tectonic ones. While tectonic earthquakes usually cause damage because of their magnitude, volcanic ones have the potential to cause long-term damage through volcanic eruptions and ashes. Ersoy specifically touches on the effects of this issue on Türkiye, stating, “The eruption of volcanoes can affect Türkiye because some types of volcanoes in the area can emit ash. They can come to Turkey through wind systems and sea waves.”
These ashes are important considering that they can rise up to 7 kilometers high in violent eruptions and disrupt air transportation. Volcanic travel has disrupted air travel in the past, such as in 2010, when 100,000 flights were canceled due to an Icelandic eruption.
This isn’t the only concern regarding earthquakes; another potential concern is the risk of a tsunami. If an underwater landslide occurs, there can be a tsunami even if a volcano does not erupt since tsunamis usually occur during a major earthquake. Furthermore, since tsunami waves are capable of traveling long distances, they will most definitely affect Turkish coasts such as Muğla, Bodrum, Datça, and Bozburun, but they can even reach İzmir. Türkiye has an early warning system for tsunamis. There are siren systems along the coastlines but citizens need to be aware of what each sound signifies. When a tsunami occurs, it takes about half an hour to reach the Turkish coast, which is 140 kilometers away.
It is crucial to take this threat seriously as one of the many volcanoes on the South Aegean Volcanic Arc, extending from Kos to Sousaki, the underwater Kolumbo volcano near Santorini last erupted in 1400 BC, and the tsunami even affected Cyprus as well as leading to the end of the Minoan civilization.
In the extraordinary meeting organized by the Santorini Island Municipality Council, it was decided to take precautions due to the recent increase in seismic activity on the island. In this context, all events and meetings planned to be held in municipal indoor spaces in the following days were canceled. As part of the precautions, education was temporarily suspended in nurseries and primary and secondary schools. Precautions and news of the earthquakes led thousands of tourists to leave the island quickly.
Another professional on the issue, the Founding President of Gazi University Earthquake Research Center Prof. Dr. Pampal, spoke on the matter and the threat the earthquakes pose to Türkiye by saying, "We can call these tremors earthquakes that indicate volcanic activity. If Santorini erupts again, it could cause significant damage to the nearby islands. It may not erupt because there was a seismic storm lasting more than a year in 2011, and it did not erupt. An eruption is possible, but it is quite far from us, about 150-200 kilometers away. Therefore, I don't consider that it will have a very serious impact." He also added that there have been earthquakes with magnitudes stronger than 7 in the area and stated, “It wouldn't be a surprise if a big earthquake occurs in the region.”
Therefore, the impact of earthquakes can still remain an unanswered question, as it always does on topics of natural disasters. Conflicting opinions and the various impacts the earthquakes can have make the future harder to predict and take precautions for.
Edited by: Derya Selin Yener, Yağmur Ece Nisanoğlu