On December 8, Syria’s capital Damascus fell into rebel’s hands following the offensive launched by Syrian armed opposition forces on November 27. With that, Syria's 13-year civil war and 53-year Assad regime came to an end. Assad fled and rebels stormed his residence in Damascus. The Russian media reported that Assad and his family have sought refuge in Russia.
The offensive, led by the jihadist opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), followed Iran supported Hezbollah and other Shia militia’s shift in focus to Lebanon, where units were deployed to confront Israeli forces, weakening the Syrian government’s military support.
After fierce clashes between the rebels and the Syrian Army, Syrian government forces were forced to retreat toward Damascus and cities fell into one by one into rebel hands. On December 30, HTS took control of Syria’s second-largest city Aleppo while Russian forces stationed in Aleppo and Idlib were also forced to withdraw, prompting Russia to conduct a series of airstrikes in the region to support the Syrian Army. These strikes killed 17 people and wounded 55 others.
Additionally, it is reported that the rebel forces have captured significant supplies of military equipment and Russia had to strike its own abandoned positions to prevent
rebels from acquiring further equipment.
On Thursday, the rebels retook Hama and Homs, which are other significant cities on the road to Damascus, while the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) captured the key city of Tal Rifaat from the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), allegedly with support from Turkish artillery and UCAVs.
After 12 days of fighting, Damascus was surrounded by rebels and it fell in less than 24 hours. Shortly after Damascus fell, rebels captured the last remaining cities held by the regime forces, Tartus and Lattakia. Lattakia, home to Russia's sole military base in the Mediterranean, has now fallen into rebel hands.
Although Türkiye openly supports the Syrian National Army (SNA), Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that Türkiye was not involved in the recent events. However, some analysts argue that it is unlikely the offensive would have commenced without Ankara’s consent. There are also claims that Turkish military officers contributed to planning the offensive strategy.
Charles Lister, an expert at Washington's Middle East Institute, claimed that the Aleppo offensive was initially planned for mid-October but Türkiye delayed it because of Ankara's efforts to normalize ties with the Assad regime. Erdoğan had been pressing Assad to agree to reconcile for the past few months, but the Syrian leader said that it could only happen if Türkiye withdrew its troops and the militias they support from Syrian territory. Eventually, the talks were halted and Türkiye gave its green light to rebel forces to start the offensive.
Türkiye has long been involved in the Syria crisis, conducting numerous military operations against the Kurdish terrorist group PKK, which controls significant Syrian territories alongside the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). Türkiye considers the YPG a terrorist organization and an extension of the PKK, while the US backs the YPG to create a force in Syria that works for US interests and a bulwark against the jihadist Islamic State.
Türkiye was concerned that the PKK/ YPG can possibly gain control of strategic areas left by the Syrian Army after their withdrawal and as of today, the Turkish-backed SNA announced that they took full control of Manbij and have begun clearing YPG forces. Moreover, their offensive has cut the corridor that connects Manbij to the Mediterranean Sea, heavily damaging PKK/YPG’s logistic lines.
Syria's second largest city, Aleppo, is 50 kilometers from the Turkish border, while Idlib is 30 kilometers from the Turkish border, which facilitates Türkiye’s military operations into the country. Türkiye carried out its last comprehensive cross-border military operation in northern Syria in 2019. However, despite opposition from both the US and Russia, Türkiye has recently been signaling that they are ready to resort to military means if the YPG continues to pose a threat.
Furthermore, Türkiye has been sheltering around 3 million Syrians that fled the Syrian civil war in 2011, and is concerned that further unrest in the region can trigger a new mass migration movement towards its borders. Ankara is hoping that the rebel victory can pave the way for the return of the Syrian refugees whose presence has become a burden on the country.
Ultimately, the result presents an opportunity for Türkiye to strengthen its strategic position in Syria as Russia and Iran have lost most of their influence in the region.
Edited by: Derya Yener, Ece Nisanoğlu